Tag: triad alerts

A decade of successful Triad calls for EIC

Posted on by Sophie Wyatt

A decade of successful Triad calls for EIC

National Grid have published the three Triad dates for the 2021/22 season, which are listed in the table below. For a tenth consecutive year EIC has successfully called an alert on each of these days.

There was a reduction in the number of Triad calls this year with EIC only issuing 17 alerts in total, nearly a third less than the number called the previous winter. This compares favourably with other suppliers who called an average of 25 alerts across the Triad period.

Confirmed Triad DateHalf hour endingSettlement PeriodDemand (MW)
02/12/202117:00SP3443,748
05/01/202217:30SP3542,760
20/01/202217:30SP3543,538

Source: National Grid

Note: Settlement data published on 29/03/22

What are Triads?

Triads are three half-hour periods with the highest electricity demand between the start of November and the end of February. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads. If consumers are able to respond to Triad alerts by reducing demand, then they will be able to lower their final transmission costs.

Mild winter leads to fall in demand

The Triad season started with a long period of mild weather before a cold spell at the end of November and start of December which resulted in the first Triad. Temperatures returned above seasonal normal for most of December with a particularly mild period between Christmas and New Year. The remaining two Triads occurred in January as temperatures frequently dropped below seasonal normal. In contrast, February contained long periods of mild and windy weather which resulted in a drop in peak demand. Across the Triad season 14 weekdays had an average temperature below 3°C, with 10 of these occurring in January. This compares to 24 the previous winter and only six for the 2019/20 winter.

This winter saw peak demand fall by 1.7GW from last year mainly due to the milder temperatures. There was an increase in demand-side response and a decrease in domestic consumption compared to last winter as there were less severe lockdown restrictions. Average demand also decreased and has now fallen by 9.5GW or 19% in the past 10 years. This has coincided with a 30GW decrease in baseload capacity over the same period as a number of coal, gas and nuclear power stations have closed.

It will be interesting to see whether demand continues to fall next year as baseload capacity is projected to decline further. Three coal and one nuclear power stations are set to close by next winter resulting in the loss of 4.7GW capacity. This will be partially offset by the opening of the 893MW Keady 2 gas power station and the 1GW ElecLink interconnector. However, if margins are tight on cold, still days then this will be reflected by a spike in day-ahead prices. With gas and power prices already at record levels there will be pressure on all sectors to reduce demand in the coming months to lessen the impact of energy bill rises.

Triads granted extra year

In May 2021, Ofgem launched a consultation on the Transmission Demand Residual (TDR) part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR). The minded-to decision was to delay the implementation until April 2023 which means that there is one final chance for consumers to benefit from Triad avoidance over the 2022/23 winter period. The changes to DUoS charges will still be implemented in April 2022.

The TCR aims to introduce a charge that Ofgem considers is fair to all consumers and not just those able to reduce consumption during peak periods. For the majority of consumers these changes will lead to a reduction in transmission costs. However, sites currently taking Triad avoidance action are likely to face an increase in TNUoS costs from April 2023 as the effect of Triad avoidance is removed. Likewise, sites that have a capacity level set too high are also susceptible to DUoS and TNUoS cost increases as they are potentially placed in a higher charging band.

How EIC can help

With the confirmation that from April 2022 residual charges will be calculated using a capacity-based methodology, now is the perfect time to undertake a capacity review on all of your HH sites. EIC’s Capacity Review service is a fully managed end to end offering. We undertake detailed analysis for each of your sites, outline potential savings and offer clear advice on what action you should take. If we find that your capacity can be reduced by more than 50% it may also be possible to apply for a charging band reallocation which could significantly cut your future DUoS and TNUoS charges.

EIC can also help you accurately budget and forecast your energy prices with confidence with our Long-Term Forecast Report. Our team of specialists work hard identifying trends, examining historical figures and forecasting for the future. The Long-Term Forecast Report is a valuable tool which illustrates the annual projected increases to your energy bills and calculates your energy spend over the next 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. This allows you to confidently forward budget and avoid any nasty surprises. Whilst we can’t prevent the rise of non-commodity charges, we can ensure you are fully prepared for the increases.

Get in touch today to find out more on how EIC can help you future-proof your business.

Challenging Winter Ahead for Triad Season

Posted on by Josh Ellison

Winter is fast approaching and the Triad season will soon begin. This is an important time for many large UK consumers as they seek to lower transmission costs by reducing demand during potential Triad periods. Triads are three half-hour periods with the highest electricity demand between the start of November and the end of February and each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads.

If your electricity contract allows it then reducing your demand at these specific points will result in lower transmission charges. However, knowing when Triads occur is a complex business so, to help our clients, EIC provides a Triad Alert service. We have successfully forecast each of the three Triad periods for the last 8 years, saving customers millions of pounds in transmission charges.

Pandemic continues to suppress demand

Winter peak demand is at its lowest point since 1992/93 and is now 14 GW (~24%) lower than the peak of 2010/11. There are a number of factors that have contributed to the fall in peak demand over the past decade. These include improvements to the energy efficiency of appliances, an increase in LED lighting and a rise in embedded generation.

However, in 2020 we can add another significant contributor to demand reduction. The coronavirus pandemic has led to a dramatic fall in peak demand since mid-March. Demand has increased since lockdown ended but is still lower than previous years.

National Grid are currently forecasting peak demand over the Triad period to be around 43-44 GW, slightly lower than last winter’s peak of 45 GW. The winter demand forecast looks to be flatter than previous years, making predicting when Triads will fall far more challenging. It is therefore important to receive Triad alerts from a trusted and reliable source such as EIC.

EIC’s record of Triad season success

EIC has an in-house model which has successfully forecast every triad period for the last eight years. We issue clients with comprehensive alerts advising them when a Triad is forecast, so they can reduce consumption accordingly.

Our Triad Alert Service forecasts the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and sends alerts before 10am. Businesses can then take action to avoid high usage during these periods, while minimising disruption to everyday activity. We also monitor the market throughout the day and send out an afternoon alert in the event of significant change. The daily report can also help you plan ahead with an overview of the next 14 days alongside a long-term winter outlook.

Calling daily alerts would generate a 100% success rate, however this could have a negative impact on our clients. Organisations would incur major damage to revenues if required to turn down their production each day for 4 months ‘just in case’ and at EIC our aim is to provide as few alerts as possible. Over the 2019/20 Triad period we called just 13 alerts while the average supplier issued over 20.

Triads granted extra year

In December 2019, Ofgem published their final decision on the Targeted Charging Review (TCR). The main outcome of this decision is that, from April 2021, the residual part of transmission charges will be levied in the form of fixed charges for all households and businesses. However, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic Ofgem has decided to delay this by a year. This provides an extra opportunity for consumers to benefit from Triad avoidance before TCR changes arrive in April 2022.

With the TCR, Ofgem aims to introduce a charge it considers fair to all consumers, not just those able to reduce during peak periods. For the majority of consumers these changes will lead to a reduction in transmission costs. However, for those who are currently taking Triad avoidance action it is likely that their future costs will rise.

How we can help with Triad season

We have helped hundreds of clients avoid these transmission costs by providing them with the tools needed, giving EIC an enviable track record in Triad prediction.

Last year, our customers cut demand by an average of 41% compared to standard winter peak-period half-hour consumption – resulting in significant cost savings. Clients who responded to our Triad Alerts, saved on average £180,000. Our best result last winter saw a client saving nearly £1 million in TNUoS charges.

The Triad season starts on 1 November. Find out more about our Triad Alert service.

Last call for Triads

Posted on by Amy Coniff

National Grid have published the three Triad dates for the 2019/20 season, which are listed in the table below. For an eighth consecutive year EIC has successfully called an alert on each of these days.

There was a significant reduction in the number of Triad calls this year with EIC only issuing 13 alerts in total, nearly half the number called the previous winter. This compares favourably with other suppliers who called an average of 24 alerts across the Triad period.

Triads are three half-hour periods with the highest electricity demand between the start of November and the end of February. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads. If consumers are able to respond to Triad alerts by reducing demand then they will be able to lower their final transmission costs.

Lowest peak demand for 27 years

Peak demand is at its lowest point since 1992/93 and is now 14 GW (~24%) lower than the peak of 2010/11. There are a number of factors that have contributed to the fall in peak demand over the past decade. These include improvements to the energy efficiency of appliances, an increase in LED lighting and a rise in embedded generation.

Embedded wind output peaked at 3.4 GW during the Triad period. As embedded generators are connected to local distribution networks, this displaces a similar amount of demand from the transmission network. Therefore, peak demand is typically higher on days with low wind which increases the risk of a Triad occurring. This trend can be seen in the graph below which shows that for every 1 GW increase in embedded wind output there was an associated drop in peak demand of 0.9 GW.

Mild January leads to new record

For the first time since the Triad methodology was implemented, all three Triads have occurred before Christmas. This is mainly due to the mild and windy weather conditions experienced so far in 2020.

In terms of temperature, we’ve seen the mildest January since 2007 and second mildest in past 30 years. Across the Triad season only six weekdays had an average temperature below 3°C with only one of these occurring after Christmas. This compares to 17 the previous winter and 23 for the 2017/18 winter.

Wind generation increased throughout the Triad season with a pre-Christmas average of 6.5 GW significantly lower than the January and February average of 9.2 GW. As the weather conditions in November and December were generally colder and calmer, this increased the probability of Triads occurring during this period. Subsequently, all three Triads fell before Christmas on days when temperatures were below 4°C and wind power was less than 5 GW.

Demand response results in March peak

Peak demand on 5th March was higher than any day within the Triad period which can be seen in the graph below. The weather conditions on this day were demand supportive with an average temperature of 4°C and wind power around 5 GW. In comparison, on the 20th and 21st January weather conditions were similar, however peak demand was around 1.7 GW lower. This demonstrates the effect that Triad avoidance has had on reducing peak demand over the past few years. It also suggests that peak demand may start to increase after next winter without the incentive to consumers of reducing transmission costs. The elimination of a number of embedded benefits for generators is expected to limit the growth in embedded generation which will also have an effect on peak demand.

Demand response also led to a Triad falling between 4:30pm and 5pm, which is the earliest occurrence in 22 years. This Triad was, in fact, missed by one supplier who advised consumers to reduce demand between 5pm and 5:30pm. As some businesses are only able to reduce demand for short periods, the largest volume of demand response is typically seen between 5pm and 6pm. This has the effect of flattening the evening peak and increasing the risk of the peak half-hour falling either side of this window, as was the case on 17th December. All 13 Triad alerts issued by EIC covered the correct HH period, comparing favourably to an average success rate of 78% across other suppliers.

TCR Final Decision

In December, Ofgem published their final decision on the Targeted Charging Review (TCR). The main outcome of this decision is that from April 2021 the residual part of transmission charges will be levied in the form of fixed charges for all households and businesses. This means that there is one final chance for consumers to benefit from Triad avoidance over the 2020/21 winter period.

The TCR aims to introduce a charge that Ofgem considers is fair to all consumers and not just those able to reduce consumption during peak periods. For the majority of consumers these changes will lead to a reduction in transmission costs. However, for those who are currently taking Triad avoidance action it is likely that their future costs will rise.

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Triads – how low can they go?

Posted on by Amy Coniff

The Triad season started on 1 November and is one of the most important areas of demand management for energy users. Triads are used by National Grid to calculate transmission charges as part of the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) scheme.

What are Triads?

Triads are the three half-hour periods with the highest demand between 1 November and the end of February, identified by National Grid. However, each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days, meaning consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads.

 

Why should you avoid them?

The knowledge of when Triads will occur enables many companies to manage their demand consumption. If your electricity contract allows for it, reducing your usage during an expected Triad period will result in reduced transmission charges and lower bills.

 

How low can they go?

The 2017/18 season saw the lowest level of Triad demand since records began in the early 1990s.

The maximum Triad level dropped to a record 48GW last year, having fallen more than 10GW in just eight years.

 

Overall energy consumption has been trending lower for the last decade, and one of the interesting outcomes from this Triad season will be whether a new record low can be achieved.

 

Efficiency is key

A large part of the reduction in peak demand has been due to major developments in energy efficiency. The use of new technology and appliances, as well as a switch from incandescent lighting, are all contributing to lower energy consumption.

The act of Triad avoidance has developed to the extent that it’s influencing when Triads occur, as more and more businesses across the UK look to demand side management as a means to cut their costs. National Grid highlighted last year that businesses reacting to warning signals – such as our Triad Alerts – had the potential to cut the country’s peak demand by as much as 2GW. This then makes it more difficult to predict Triads, as peaks for the winter get lower and flatter with each passing year, forcing us to adapt our model to ensure continued success.

 

Our successful track record

Forecasting Triads is dependent on a wide range of different factors. Our Triad Alert service monitors different influencers to predict the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and automatically sends that information promptly to our clients. These businesses can then take informed action to avoid high energy usage during these more costly half-hour periods, while minimising disruption to their everyday activity. Our daily report can help you plan ahead with an overview of the next 14 days, alongside a long-term winter outlook.

Of course, calling an alert every weekday would generate a 100% success rate, but we recognise the negative impact this would have on businesses. Organisations could incur major damage to revenues if required to turn down their production each day for four months ‘just in case’, so we aim to provide as few alerts as possible.

In the previous Triad season we only called 9 Red Alerts and successfully predicted all three Triads with fewer alerts than any other tracked TPI or supplier. In fact, the total number of alerts called by Utilitywise has fallen 36% in the last three years. We successfully predicted all three half hour periods with our lowest ever number of alerts. Our in-house model is based on a traffic light system, with Red Alerts indicating we believe a Triad is highly likely and our clients should take immediate action.

For those that took action last year, based on our advice, demand was cut by an average of 14% compared to standard winter peak-period half-hour consumption. This resulted in significant average cost savings of over £30,000, and in some cases, rewards closer to £700,000 were observed.

 

Intelligent buildings, smarter business

By forecasting when Triads will occur, we empower our clients to take control of their consumption to reduce their energy use and lower their bills. Businesses can react to our Alerts simply by cutting demand during suspected Triad times or by load-shifting.

Load-shifting involves moving the most energy-intensive tasks of the day to a time when it’s less likely that a Triad will occur, for example early in the morning. This enables you to avoid Triads without reducing your overall daily energy use. Building controls make this easier. With our IoT-enabled Building Energy Management solution, we’re introducing the next generation of smart building controls. Our innovative solution brings together the required technologies to integrate your critical energy systems with a single, remotely-managed platform. This means you can manage your buildings in real-time.

A smarter way to avoid Triads

Posted on by Amy Coniff

Each year from November to the end of February, National Grid use peak demand data to calculate how much energy users should pay in electricity transmission charges as part of the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) scheme. To avoid higher costs you can undertake Triad avoidance.

What are Triads?

Triads are the three half-hour periods with the highest demand between 1 November and the end of February, identified by National Grid. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads. Businesses that reduce their usage during these high demand points will lower their future electricity transmission costs.

You can find out if your business is affected by Triads here.

 

How will you know when to act?

Our Triad Alert Service monitors different influencers to predict the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and automatically sends that information promptly to our clients. You can then take informed action to avoid high usage during these more costly half-hour periods, while minimising disruption to your everyday activity. Our daily report can help you plan ahead with an overview of the next 14 days alongside a long-term winter outlook.

Find out more about our Triad Alert service here.

 

We’ve got a Triad and tested track record

Predicting Triads is very challenging; falling demand and changing usage patterns mean Triads are no longer guaranteed to occur at the height of winter. Season 2017/18 included the latest Triad on record and weakest demand levels since the early 1990s.

We’ve helped hundreds of clients avoid these transmission costs by providing them with the tools needed, giving EIC an enviable track record in Triad prediction. Previously, one client saved £800,000 by acting on insight from our Triad Alert service.

Last season we hit all three Triad periods, issuing just nine red alerts, lower than any other TPI or supplier – a testament to our in-house technology, analytics, and expertise. Of course, calling an alert every weekday would generate a 100% success rate but we recognise the negative impact this would have. Businesses could incur major damage to their revenues if required to turn down production each day for a quarter of the year ‘just in case’.

By issuing fewer alerts we ensure our clients are not unnecessarily disrupted from their day-to-day activities. Those that took action in response to our alerts last season cut demand by an average of 15% compared to standard peak-period half-hour consumption.

 

Intelligent buildings, smarter business

By forecasting when Triads will occur, we empower our clients to take control of their consumption to reduce their energy use and lower their bills. Businesses can react to our Alerts simply by cutting demand during suspected Triad times or by load-shifting.

Load-shifting involves moving the most energy-intensive tasks of the day to a time when it’s less likely that a Triad will occur, for example early in the morning. This enables you to avoid Triads without reducing your overall daily energy use. Building controls make this easier. With our IoT-enabled Building Energy Management solution, we’re introducing the next generation of smart building controls. Our innovative solution brings together the required technologies to integrate your critical energy systems with a single, remotely-managed platform. This means you can manage your buildings in real-time.

The Triad season begins on 1 November. To find out more about our Triad Alert service click here call 01527 511 757 or email info@eic.co.uk.

Our offices will be closed for the Bank Holiday (Monday 29 August 2022).
If you have a query, please contact us from Tuesday 30 August onwards, and we
will be happy to deal with your query then.