Triads – how low can they go?

The Triad season started on 1 November and is one of the most important areas of demand management for energy users. Triads are used by National Grid to calculate transmission charges as part of the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) scheme.

What are Triads?

Triads are the three half-hour periods with the highest demand between 1 November and the end of February, identified by National Grid. However, each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days, meaning consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads.

 

Why should you avoid them?

The knowledge of when Triads will occur enables many companies to manage their demand consumption. If your electricity contract allows for it, reducing your usage during an expected Triad period will result in reduced transmission charges and lower bills.

 

How low can they go?

The 2017/18 season saw the lowest level of Triad demand since records began in the early 1990s.

The maximum Triad level dropped to a record 48GW last year, having fallen more than 10GW in just eight years.

 

How low can Triads go

 

Overall energy consumption has been trending lower for the last decade, and one of the interesting outcomes from this Triad season will be whether a new record low can be achieved.

 

Efficiency is key

A large part of the reduction in peak demand has been due to major developments in energy efficiency. The use of new technology and appliances, as well as a switch from incandescent lighting, are all contributing to lower energy consumption.

The act of Triad avoidance has developed to the extent that it’s influencing when Triads occur, as more and more businesses across the UK look to demand side management as a means to cut their costs. National Grid highlighted last year that businesses reacting to warning signals – such as our Triad Alerts – had the potential to cut the country’s peak demand by as much as 2GW. This then makes it more difficult to predict Triads, as peaks for the winter get lower and flatter with each passing year, forcing us to adapt our model to ensure continued success.

 

Our successful track record

Forecasting Triads is dependent on a wide range of different factors. Our Triad Alert service monitors different influencers to predict the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and automatically sends that information promptly to our clients. These businesses can then take informed action to avoid high energy usage during these more costly half-hour periods, while minimising disruption to their everyday activity. Our daily report can help you plan ahead with an overview of the next 14 days, alongside a long-term winter outlook.

Of course, calling an alert every weekday would generate a 100% success rate, but we recognise the negative impact this would have on businesses. Organisations could incur major damage to revenues if required to turn down their production each day for four months ‘just in case’, so we aim to provide as few alerts as possible.

In the previous Triad season we only called 9 Red Alerts and successfully predicted all three Triads with fewer alerts than any other tracked TPI or supplier. In fact, the total number of alerts called by Utilitywise has fallen 36% in the last three years. We successfully predicted all three half hour periods with our lowest ever number of alerts. Our in-house model is based on a traffic light system, with Red Alerts indicating we believe a Triad is highly likely and our clients should take immediate action.

For those that took action last year, based on our advice, demand was cut by an average of 14% compared to standard winter peak-period half-hour consumption. This resulted in significant average cost savings of over £30,000, and in some cases, rewards closer to £700,000 were observed.

 

Intelligent buildings, smarter business

By forecasting when Triads will occur, we empower our clients to take control of their consumption to reduce their energy use and lower their bills. Businesses can react to our Alerts simply by cutting demand during suspected Triad times or by load-shifting.

Load-shifting involves moving the most energy-intensive tasks of the day to a time when it’s less likely that a Triad will occur, for example early in the morning. This enables you to avoid Triads without reducing your overall daily energy use. Building controls make this easier. With our IoT-enabled Building Energy Management solution, we’re introducing the next generation of smart building controls. Our innovative solution brings together the required technologies to integrate your critical energy systems with a single, remotely-managed platform. This means you can manage your buildings in real-time.

The Triad season started on 1 November. To find out more about our Triad Alert service visit our website, call 01527 511 757 or email info@eic.co.uk.

A smarter way to avoid Triads

Each year from November to the end of February, National Grid use peak demand data to calculate how much energy users should pay in electricity transmission charges as part of the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) scheme. To avoid higher costs you can undertake Triad avoidance.

What are Triads?

Triads are the three half-hour periods with the highest demand between 1 November and the end of February, identified by National Grid. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads. Businesses that reduce their usage during these high demand points will lower their future electricity transmission costs.

You can find out if your business is affected by Triads here.

 

How will you know when to act?

Our Triad Alert Service monitors different influencers to predict the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and automatically sends that information promptly to our clients. You can then take informed action to avoid high usage during these more costly half-hour periods, while minimising disruption to your everyday activity. Our daily report can help you plan ahead with an overview of the next 14 days alongside a long-term winter outlook.

Find out more about our Triad Alert service here.

 

We’ve got a Triad and tested track record

Predicting Triads is very challenging; falling demand and changing usage patterns mean Triads are no longer guaranteed to occur at the height of winter. Season 2017/18 included the latest Triad on record and weakest demand levels since the early 1990s.

We’ve helped hundreds of clients avoid these transmission costs by providing them with the tools needed, giving EIC an enviable track record in Triad prediction. Previously, one client saved £800,000 by acting on insight from our Triad Alert service.

Last season we hit all three Triad periods, issuing just nine red alerts, lower than any other TPI or supplier – a testament to our in-house technology, analytics, and expertise. Of course, calling an alert every weekday would generate a 100% success rate but we recognise the negative impact this would have. Businesses could incur major damage to their revenues if required to turn down production each day for a quarter of the year ‘just in case’.

By issuing fewer alerts we ensure our clients are not unnecessarily disrupted from their day-to-day activities. Those that took action in response to our alerts last season cut demand by an average of 15% compared to standard peak-period half-hour consumption.

 

Intelligent buildings, smarter business

By forecasting when Triads will occur, we empower our clients to take control of their consumption to reduce their energy use and lower their bills. Businesses can react to our Alerts simply by cutting demand during suspected Triad times or by load-shifting.

Load-shifting involves moving the most energy-intensive tasks of the day to a time when it’s less likely that a Triad will occur, for example early in the morning. This enables you to avoid Triads without reducing your overall daily energy use. Building controls make this easier. With our IoT-enabled Building Energy Management solution, we’re introducing the next generation of smart building controls. Our innovative solution brings together the required technologies to integrate your critical energy systems with a single, remotely-managed platform. This means you can manage your buildings in real-time.

The Triad season begins on 1 November. To find out more about our Triad Alert service click here call 01527 511 757 or email info@eic.co.uk.