Be prepared for Triad season

A crucial time in the UK energy calendar, Triad season, begins in just a matter of weeks. The Triad season runs from 1 November to the end of February. Three half hour periods during this phase are used to calculate transmission charges for the entire year by National Grid. This is part of the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) scheme. If your electricity contract allows it, reducing your demand at these specific points will result in lower transmission charges. However, knowing when Triads occur is a complex business.

To help our clients, EIC provides a Triad Alert service. We have successfully forecast each of the three Triad periods for the last 7 years. By predicting Triads each winter, EIC has saved customers millions of pounds in transmission charges.

WHAT ARE TRIADS?

Triads are three half-hour periods with the highest electricity demand between 1 November and 28 February. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads.

A NEW LOW?

The 2018/19 Triad season saw electricity demand fall to a new all-time low. Peak electricity demand for the three half hour periods averaged 45.6 GW, with the third Triad occurring as demand was just 45.0 GW.

By comparison in 2017/18 average demand for the Triads was 47.5 GW. Maximum Triad demand has fallen by over 11 GW (~20%) in the last ten years. This reflects an overall trend towards lower electricity consumption. Major advances in technology and energy efficiency for appliances, as well as a move to smarter lighting are contributing to sustained year-on-year demand reduction.

EIC historic Triad demand graph

This trend provides an opportunity for an even lower Triad figure this year. Weekly peak power demand during 2019 has so far been lower than its equivalent week from 2018 on two-thirds of occasions.

EIC power demand Triad graph

Greater role for wind

Another factor contributing to the decline in demand is the increase in installed wind capacity over the past decade and the increasing share of the fuel mix secured by renewable generation. The latest BEIS figures from Q2 2019 showed renewables capacity rising 8% year-on-year, with its share of the fuel mix reaching new highs of 35.5%.

Most of this capacity is connected to the Grid so does not impact demand. However, around 6 GW (~30%) of wind capacity is embedded – it is connected to local distribution networks. As a result, it can influence outturn demand. Each MW of embedded wind generation is a MW of demand which otherwise would need to be provided by the transmission network. Therefore on days of high wind generation there may be a reduction in demand, triggered by the extra embedded wind levels. Average embedded wind output has increased by more than 1 GW over the past 10 years, contributing to the steady trend in demand reduction.

Last year the level of embedded wind generation varied by 3 GW, depending on nationwide wind conditions. This led to a demand swing of the same amount. This is having a growing influence on Triad forecasting as the increasing demand swing reduces the risk of a Triad occurring on days with high wind output. As a consequence, Triads are more likely to occur on days of very low wind generation. This was the case last year when each Triad occurred on a day with less than 1 GW of embedded wind generation.

HOW MANY MORE TRIADS?

The success of Triad avoidance in reducing costs for the end user has forced regulator Ofgem to undertake a change to the charging methodology for distribution costs. A consultation launched in December 2018 proposed changes which could remove the incentive for Triad Avoidance.

The Targeted Charging Review aims to introduce a charge that Ofgem considers is fair to all consumers and not just those able to reduce consumption during peak periods. Under current proposals, Triads would change to a fixed or agreed capacity, eliminating the need for avoidance in the future. Ofgem originally nominated a deadline for the reforms for April 2020. However, a recently released updated timeline has indicated that the regulator is now aiming for an implementation date of April 2023. As a result, it is possible that there will be a maximum of four winters remaining available for Triad forecasting, including the upcoming season. The removal of the Triad scheme will increase costs for business that currently benefit from Triad avoidance.

EIC TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS

EIC has an in-house model which has successfully forecast every triad period for the last seven years. We provide clients with comprehensive alerts advising when a Triad is forecast, so they can reduce consumption accordingly.

Our Triad Alert Service forecasts the likelihood of any particular day being a Triad and sends alerts before 10am. This allows businesses to take informed action to avoid high usage during these half-hour periods. It also minimises disruption to their everyday activity. We monitor the market throughout the day and in the event of significant change will send out another alert in the afternoon. The daily report includes foresight of the next 14 days alongside a long-term winter outlook allowing clients to plan ahead.

Calling an alert every weekday would generate a 100% success rate, however we recognise the negative impact this could have on our clients. Organisations would incur major damage to revenues if required to turn down their production each day for 4 months ‘just in case”. At EIC our aim is to provide as few alerts as possible.

Last year we successfully predicted all three half-hour periods. The only tracked TPI or supplier which issued fewer alerts than EIC failed to predict all of the Triad periods.

HOW WE CAN HELP

We have helped hundreds of clients avoid these transmission costs by providing them with the tools needed, giving EIC an enviable track record in Triad prediction.

For those that took action last year, demand was cut by an average of 41% compared to standard winter peak-period half-hour consumption.

This resulted in significant cost savings, with clients who responded to our Triad Alerts saving on average £180,000. The best result last winter saw a client saving just shy of £1 million in TNUoS charges.

The Triad season begins on 1 November. To find out more about our Triad Alert service, call 01527 511 757 or download our flyer here

The Energy Awards Shortlist Success

Category 1 – Energy Buying Team of the Year

We’re here to simplify the process of buying and managing energy. We match clients with the right contract for their business. The Energy Awards recognised our success in this field and have shortlisted EIC for Energy Buying Team of the Year for our flexible procurement offering.

Flexible Procurement

Our flexible purchasing solutions begin with a strategy development workshop with our clients. We conduct a detailed discussion of the client’s business objectives and appetite for risk, seeking to identify their key priorities for the contract. We also review their current situation and any upcoming projects that could affect their portfolio or consumption.

Public Sector Portfolio

Our Public Sector Portfolio is an OJEU compliant group flexible purchasing solution. It adds value by removing the administrative burden faced by public sector organisations when procuring contracts, and reduces the timeframes when securing their supply agreement. This has proven a real hit with universities, councils and NHS Trusts.

A team effort

There are multiple teams working collaboratively to make the flexible procurement service a success. Our clients are fully supported throughout the procurement process with a dedicated Account Management team. Traders work within the parameters of a client’s strategy making decisions based on insight from our Market Intelligence team.

Trading success

In just one week our flexible procurement traders locked in a massive £343,000 for our flexible procurement clients. In fact in a single month – March 2019 – savings topped £771,000. What’s more, calendar year savings have exceeded a staggering £2.1million for the period January – August.

Category 2 – Energy Data Collection and Analysis

Our shortlist for the Energy Data Collection and Analysis award focuses on our 360 Strategic Energy Review along with our Triad model and alerts.

360 Strategic Review

Our 360 Strategic Review is a powerful data tool created to unearth hidden savings potential for our clients. We take half-hourly data and analyse it on a site-by-site basis. We focus on where reductions in usage can be made and the associated cost savings. It looks at shifting consumption to avoid the peak Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges, reducing consumption in the winter to mitigate Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges, and assessing usage against operational hours to identify out of hours wastage. On average we’ve identified savings of £130,639 per customer so far.

Triad model and alerts

National Grid identifies three Triads each year in order to calculate the Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges an organisation will incur. Such transmission costs can be reduced if demand is decreased when a Triad is expected. Our Triad model and alerts help clients plan their electricity usage around these dates in order to lower their energy bills.

Our model used from 1 November to the end of February,  identifies which days and what time periods on those days could be a Triad. We then inform our clients using our alert service whether they need to take action to reduce demand and avoid a Triad. We have issued an alert on all three Triad dates for the past 7 years. Last year we issued 24 alerts compared to suppliers who had similar results issuing on average 29 alerts. It’s vitally important for us to issue as few alerts as possible to avoid any unnecessary client interventions.

Awards Ceremony

Our teams work really hard every day to ensure our clients get the right solutions for their businesses. It’s great to have been recognised for our efforts. We’re looking forward to the awards ceremony which take place on Thursday 21 November at the London Hilton on Park Lane. We’ll keep you posted on our success.

 

6 things to consider when negotiating a flexible energy supply contract

In our latest blog we outline some key factors you need to consider when opting for a flexible energy supply contract.

  1. Contract Duration

    The duration of your flexible energy supply contract is often driven by market liquidity. The trading windows cover 4 seasons (24 months) for power and 6 seasons (36 months) for gas but it’s always beneficial to put a longer term contract in place so seasons can be traded as soon as they become liquid. Longer duration flexible energy contracts provide optimum trading opportunities to manage prices over time. It is also worth ensuring a supply contract is in place to cover any duration that requires a budget to be set.

  2. Non-Commodity Charges

    It’s important to think carefully about your non-commodity costs when securing your flexible energy supply contract. There are many options available. These range from fully fixing all or some non-commodity charges, to having all charges fully passed through at cost. Having all, or at least some, of the demand related charges passed through will reduce premiums. As a result you can reduce costs by load shifting or load shedding. This will however increase the complexity of invoices as the non-commodity charges will be transparent on your invoices with some subject to reconciliations. Non-commodity costs will make up around 67% of your overall costs by 2025. So it’s vital to consider your wider energy strategy as fixing non-commodity costs could limit the potential gains from being more proactive.

  3. Trading Flexibility

    Although the commodity element of your costs now makes up a smaller portion of overall spend, this is the element we can influence the most through active trading. Access to supplier trading desks, the ability to refloat volume and the size of tradeable clips are some of the things that should be considered to maximise trading flexibility. Some suppliers will also charge trading transaction fees which can result in additional costs over the duration of the contract so these should be factored into supply contract negotiations. Your preferred trading strategy should also be considered to ensure you’re your contract offers you the required level of flexibility.

  4. Volumes

    When tendering a flexible energy supply contract, including accurate volume forecasts will enable a supplier to provide the most suitable contract offer. Some suppliers will apply a volume tolerance to a supply contract and set limits on reforecasting. So if there are any planned or known volume changes due occur in the future it is important to consider these. Having accurate trading volumes in place from the start also enables effective buying strategies to be implement from a trading and budgeting point of view.

  5. Administration

    When choosing a supplier to renew with it is important to consider your requirements relating to payment terms, invoicing and data access. Some suppliers can be more flexible than others regarding invoicing and payment terms, and certain factors such as credit can impact on the options available. There are also variations in what a supplier can offer in terms of data access. Whether this is access to consumption data or invoices via a dedicated contact or via an online portal.

  6. Negotiation & Analysis

    Suppliers will charge specific fees for managing a contract and offer different premiums for renewable energy for example. Therefore it’s vital to analyse supplier offers on a like-for-like basis to ensure you secure the most competitive contract available. Tender negotiations should consider all aspects of a supply contract to achieve the best contract terms in line with your requirements. The main aim is to procure a competitive contract with a supplier that meets all of your day to day needs whilst offering trading flexibility to suit your strategy.

 

Click here to find out how our Flexible Energy Procurement solutions can transform your electricity and gas buying strategies.

Join our webinar

Find out more about how you can choose your energy contract wisely at our upcoming ‘Smart Procurement – discover best practice energy buying strategies’ webinar on 12 September at 11am. Simply click here to register.

5 ways to proactively manage your non-commodity costs

Taking proactive control of your consumption is as crucial as buying at the right time. There are a variety of options to help manage and mitigate the impact of these charges to your business. Here we explore our top 5 tips to better manage your non-commodity charges.

  1. Choose your energy contract wisely
    It’s important to think carefully about your non-commodity costs when securing your energy supply contract. There are many options available ranging from fully fixed to pass-through. It is important to make sure you’re comparing apples with apples when assessing contract offers and that you ensure you know which option best suits your business before committing to a contract. It’s vital to consider your wider energy strategy, a fully fixed contract could limit the potential gains from being more proactive.
  2. Better understand your energy data
    Unlock the true potential of your energy usage. Gathering data is one thing, translating and interpreting it is another. An Intelligent Bureau uses clever analytics, algorithms, and artificial intelligence programming to unearth serious business insights that turn your site into an intelligent building, delivering powerful savings, and uncovering new and previously unexplored opportunities for additional revenue. Practical solutions could include a kVa capacity review or reactive power analysis to undercover the need for power factor correction equipment.
  3.  Install the right technology to future proof your business
    Transform your data into real-time insights; saving carbon, energy, and other operational costs. Intelligent Building Controls can potentially deliver 20% savings on your operating costs with an ROI under 12 months. Plus additional infrastructure such as wind, solar, battery storage and LED lighting can also help to reduce your usage, cut costs and support net zero carbon targets.
  4.  Start to load shift and load shed
    Reduce inefficiencies in performance by managing out of hours’ consumption and shifting or shedding consumption when prices are greatest at certain times each day. Around 10,000 UK firms could make around £20,000 a year in cost savings or revenue by moving or curtailing power use at peak times, according to 2017 analysis by SmartestEnergy.
  5.  Take advantage of Demand Side Response (DSR) opportunities
    You can get paid if you’re able to reduce consumption from the electricity grid at busy times when the national demand for energy is at its peak or to help National Grid manage system frequency. There are plenty of schemes on offer so you’ll need to decide which is the right fit for your organisation and how best you can react when you need to manage your demand levels. It’s easier if you have Intelligent Building Controls and back-up generation or storage to support your strategy.

 

Find out more about how you can choose your energy contract wisely at our upcoming ‘Smart Procurement – discover best practice energy buying strategies’ webinar on 12 September at 11am. Simply click here to register.