Thursday August 1, 2019

Boris Johnson’s appointment as Prime Minister has seen a change in strategy regarding the UK’s negotiating stance with the European Union over its exit. The new PM has pledged to leave the EU by 31 October, deal or no deal. Furthermore, while his wish is very much for an agreed exit, Mr Johnson is taking a hard line with negotiators, refusing to meet with EU leaders until a new deal is offered, without the Irish backstop.

The heightened risk of leaving the Union without a withdrawal agreement has had a negative influence on the value of the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 2% against the Euro and 3% against the Dollar in the first week of the new PM’s premiership. The pound’s value against the Dollar is the lowest in nearly two and a half years, approaching the lows reached after Article 50 was triggered in March 2017.

Increased Costs

The weakness in the value of the pound will increase costs for consumers. British imports of energy from the Continent will require a price premium which covers the wholesale and shipping costs in delivery of supply. Weakness in the pound will make these imports even more expensive when the purchase price is converted from Euros. This would be a particular issue during periods of high demand, extreme weather or supply disruptions.

Impact on Supply

In previous blogs, we have explained how Brexit is very unlikely to mean the lights go out. The UK continues to strengthen Interconnector links with Continental Europe with the capacity for power links expected to double to over 8GW by 2022.

Britain is seeking to retain as free as possible access to the EU Internal Energy Market, post Brexit. Gas and power will still be able to flow between the EU and the UK but there is the potential for legislative issues, and trading could become less efficient while long-term security of supply is less clear.

It is a similar situation in the gas market, although the UK is much more reliant on imports, with more than half of the country’s natural gas being imported from countries in the European Economic Area – the vast majority from Norway. The UK can also import supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped on tankers and pipeline flows from Belgium and the Netherlands.

Brexit is not expected to impact on the availability of this gas, even under no deal. However, less efficient trading, the possibility of new regulations, and heightened currency variations would all likely increase costs for consumers.

With the UK unable to meet demand with its own indigenous supply, the country is expected to become increasingly reliant on energy imports from foreign sellers, making these issues more prevalent in the day-to-day trading of energy.

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