Winter energy price cap level to see bills fall

The impact on customers

The new level will see the default price cap fall from £1,254 to £1,179 (over a 6% drop). The pre-payment meter cap will fall from £1,242 to £1,217 per year (around a 2% drop).

Ofgem expect energy bills to fall this winter for around 15 million households. Exact savings for each household will depend on; the cost of their current deal, how much energy they use and whether they use both gas and electricity.

The justification for this decrease has come from a significant fall in wholesale prices between February and June 2019. Healthy market fundamentals, record gas storage stocks, and periods of low demand across the last winter all contributed to this.

Households are able to cut their bills further by comparing tariffs to find the cheapest that will suit them.

The price cap moving forwards

Ofgem plans to update the level of the cap in April and October every year in order to account for the latest costs of supplying electricity and gas.

The price cap is a temporary measure, to be in place until 2023 at the latest. This allows Ofgem time to implement further reforms to make the energy market more competitive, enabling it to work more effectively for all consumers.

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How will Brexit impact on the energy industry?

More than three years have passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Debate is still ongoing over the process of our departure, any possible “deal”, payments or a transition period. However, following his appointment to Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has hardened the UK’s negotiating position, promising that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019, deal or no deal. Here we attempt to provide some insight into how this may impact various facets of the energy industry.

The energy sector in the UK had already seen significant changes with the Energy Act 2011 and various proposals for reform of the electricity market. The possible impact of Brexit on the UK and global economy could be far-reaching. However, the direct impact on the energy industry is likely to be more muted. Oil and gas markets are traded on an international level and the EU has little influence over the make-up of a member state’s energy mix. There will be no danger of blackouts or supply shortages and in the short-term you may see little day-to-day change. However, the longer-term outlook for post-Brexit energy may be altered, with one of the major issues being the UK’s relationship with, or role within, the EU’s Internal Energy Market (IEM).

The EU Internal Energy Market (IEM) – will Britain stay a part?

The IEM is a borderless network of gas and electricity transfers between EU member states. Common market rules and cross-border infrastructure allow for energy to be transferred between countries tariff-free.

Post-Brexit, Britain is likely to have less influence over EU energy regulation but will be able to adopt a different, potentially lighter, framework for its energy polices. The extent to which the UK still adheres or follows the EU energy regulation will be dependent on any ‘deal’ reached before the deadline.

Continued access to the IEM is a key priority for the UK Government in its Brexit negotiations. This would allow the country to continue to take advantage of various benefits associated with the IEM including increased security of supply, market coupling, cross-border balancing and capacity market integration.

Having recognised the benefits of the IEM the Government is seeking to retain as free as possible access to internal market and to maintain a strong influence on energy within the EU.

Plans to increase interconnectivity with the Continent are continuing and enhancing with many new interconnector links currently in development (see below). Irrespective of negotiations, this will require close co-operation with the EU Internal Energy Market going forward.

However, there are some inconsistencies in regards to UK plans encompassing full membership of the IEM. Continued participation is likely to involve the UK adopting various European legislation, which may not tally fully with UK judicial ambitions unless the UK remains part of the institutions which handle EU energy regulation (ACER, ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G for example).

Will Brexit impact on connectivity between the UK and Europe – what about interconnectors?

The ongoing negotiations regarding the UK’s 2019 exit from the E U, are having no real impact on developments, with four new interconnector links now under construction.

The Government wants to see all the current planned projects through to operation, the majority of which will not be completed until after the UK has left the EU in 2019. Former Business Secretary Greg Clark had indicated he was keen for the UK to remain in the EU’s I E M, although the final result will depend on the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

Regardless of the outcome, the UK’s energy networks’ connections to the EU will remain in place. The Government recently posted guidance on the trading of gas and electricity with the EU if there is no Brexit deal. The publication highlights that there are only small changes expected to interconnector operations. Interconnector operators have been advised to engage with relevant EU national regulators to confirm any requirements for the reassessment of their access rules.

The main area that may see impact is for proposed interconnectors, which are still in stages of project development, without final financial decisions. Uncertainty caused by Brexit, surrounding commercial, regulatory and operational impacts, will likely see planning stages re-visited to adjust for these challenges.

The UK may lose access to the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) going forward. The CEF help to provide funding for interconnectors across Europe through targeted infrastructure investment. The Government have confirmed that any commitments that have already been made by the CEF regarding interconnectors into the UK will be safe following the UK’s withdrawal. However, it is not clear whether companies in the UK will be able to seek investments for new projects.

How will Brexit impact on the carbon market? Will the UK be part of the EU ETS?

The Government has published plans for the implementation of a UK carbon tax in the case of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. Under a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK would be excluded from participating in the EU ETS. This would mean current participants in the EU ETS who are UK operators of installations will no longer take part in the system.

In this instance, the UK government will initially meet its existing carbon pricing commitments through the tax system. A carbon price would be applied across the UK, with the inclusion of Northern Ireland, starting at £16/tCO2, less than the current EU ETS price, maintaining the level of carbon pricing across the UK economy post-Brexit.

The tax would be applied to the industrial installations and power plants currently participating in the EU ETS from 4 November 2019. The aviation sector would be exempt from this tax.

Will EU state aid rules still apply to the UK?

Unless the UK remains part of the European Economic Area (EEA), then the EU state aid rules would no longer apply. The Government has said it will transfer existing EU state aid law into domestic law after Brexit. The Competition and Markets Authority will take over responsibility of state aid enforcement. Going forward UK rules may diverge from the EU but the extent of this will be limited by the terms of a future UK-EU trade deal. In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, no significant change to state aid rules are expected.

How will Brexit affect the nuclear sector?

The UK indicated its intention to withdraw from the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and the associated treaty (the Euratom Treaty) on 29 March 2017 as part of the Article 50 withdrawal process.

A report from the House of Lord’s energy sub-committee in January 2018 highlighted the potential for this withdrawal to impact UK nuclear operations such as fuel supply, waste management, and research.

However, the Government has made clear withdrawal from Euratom will not affect nuclear security and safety requirements. A Nuclear Safeguards Bill was introduced to Parliament in October 2017, highlighting how this will be achieved by amending the Energy Act 2013.

The Government will also continue to fund nuclear research in the UK, through programs like the Joint European Torus, Europe’s largest nuclear fusion device. Going forward, the UK will negotiate nuclear cooperation terms with other Euratom and non-Euratom members.

Will Brexit affect the UK’s climate change targets?

The UK passed law in June to reach Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. The country’s climate change targets will remain unchanged, regardless of whether a Brexit deal is reached. However, there are expectations that potential economic impact from a no-deal Brexit may act as a significant hindrance to decarbonisation efforts.

Additionally, there are several international issues in this area which will need to be settled. The UK’s emissions reduction target forms part of the EU target under the Paris Agreement and this will need to be withdrawn. The UK would also need to submit its own Nationally Determined Contribution under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) processes. It is yet to be determined whether the UK will continue to participate in the EU ETS post-Brexit but plans under a no-deal scenario were outlined in the October 2018 budget.

The House of Commons Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee has strongly recommended remaining in the EU ETS at least until the end of Phase III in 2020. The UK’s 5th carbon budget adopted in 2016 assumes continued participation in the EU ETS, and will need to be altered if the UK leaves the EU ETS.

What about renewable energy?

After Brexit, the UK will no longer be obligated by renewable energy targets as part of the EU Renewable Energy Directive. Additional freedom from state aid restrictions has the potential to allow the Government to shape renewable energy support schemes.

The development of large scale projects may be impacted by the availability of funding from EU institutions such as the European Investment Bank. However, renewable and low carbon energy will remain a focal point of UK energy policy post-Brexit, with national and international decarbonisation obligations unaffected by their relationship with the EU.

As part of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2019 EU legislation will be initially transposed into UK law from 31 October 2019. For some elements of the EU law, the UK will need to reach an agreement with the EU in order to maintain the status quo.

Will coal plants stay open?

Coal-fired power plants in the UK are required to adhere to the EU Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) which places conditions on such plants in order to control and reduce the emissions and waste generated by these power plant. Strict emissions limits often require substantial investment in technology to reduce pollution. Several plant determined this was not cost effective, and will close down. All but one coal plant has chosen not to adhere to the new regulations and will close by 2023. The Cottam plant announced it will shut down at the end of the summer, while Fiddlers Ferry will close its remaining units in March 2020. Despite Brexit, these unabated coal plant will close. The Government has confirmed its policy to remove coal from the fuel mix entirely by 2025.

The Medium Combustion Plants Directive 2015 (MCP) operates in a similar manner, limiting the emissions of harmful pollutants. The UK has adopted both the IED and the MCP into its European Union (Withdrawal) Act, meaning that in the short-term these regimes will continue beyond October 2019. In the long term, the UK and EU will need to agree on common standards following Brexit.

What about EU investment in energy projects?

Several EU initiatives promote investment in energy infrastructure which encompasses funding towards UK projects. The European Investment Bank (EIB) for example has invested over €13bn into UK energy projects since 2010.

The draft EU Withdrawal Treaty anticipates this funding will continue, at least for projects approved by the EIB for investment before 29 March 2019.

After withdrawal from the EU, the UK will not be eligible for specific financial operations from the EIB which are reserved for EU member states. New projects may be supported by the EU depending on the nature and whether it aligns with the EU’s own energy policy. Cross-border projects, such as interconnectors and pipelines, may be available to non-member states.

The UK Treasury has sought to boost funding certainty and has vowed to underwrite all funding obtained via a direct bid to the European Commission and has also confirmed Horizon 2020 projects will still be funded.

What about the gas market, will supplies be affected?

The UK already operates a diverse import infrastructure, consisting of interconnectors and LNG terminals to allow for the import of gas, mitigating against supply risks. Operations and gas flows are expected to continue as normal, irrespective of any Brexit.

A more significant impact is likely to come from the expiry of long term supply contracts and restrictions which allow for selling capacity on a long term basis. The tariff network coderestricts the price at which interconnectors can sell their capacity. With Brexit it is unclear whether interconnectors will continue to be bound by these restrictions.

Other benefits like the Early Warning Mechanism and the Gas Advisory Council may be lost unless the UK can negotiate to retain its role in these.

For Brexit to have a significant impact on gas prices (barring any substantial currency moves) then the withdrawal from the EU would need to lead to export tariffs on EU gas flowing to the UK.

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Pound slides to multi-year lows on Brexit concerns

Boris Johnson’s appointment as Prime Minister has seen a change in strategy regarding the UK’s negotiating stance with the European Union over its exit. The new PM has pledged to leave the EU by 31 October, deal or no deal. Furthermore, while his wish is very much for an agreed exit, Mr Johnson is taking a hard line with negotiators, refusing to meet with EU leaders until a new deal is offered, without the Irish backstop.

The heightened risk of leaving the Union without a withdrawal agreement has had a negative influence on the value of the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 2% against the Euro and 3% against the Dollar in the first week of the new PM’s premiership. The pound’s value against the Dollar is the lowest in nearly two and a half years, approaching the lows reached after Article 50 was triggered in March 2017.

Increased Costs

The weakness in the value of the pound will increase costs for consumers. British imports of energy from the Continent will require a price premium which covers the wholesale and shipping costs in delivery of supply. Weakness in the pound will make these imports even more expensive when the purchase price is converted from Euros. This would be a particular issue during periods of high demand, extreme weather or supply disruptions.

Impact on Supply

In previous blogs, we have explained how Brexit is very unlikely to mean the lights go out. The UK continues to strengthen Interconnector links with Continental Europe with the capacity for power links expected to double to over 8GW by 2022.

Britain is seeking to retain as free as possible access to the EU Internal Energy Market, post Brexit. Gas and power will still be able to flow between the EU and the UK but there is the potential for legislative issues, and trading could become less efficient while long-term security of supply is less clear.

It is a similar situation in the gas market, although the UK is much more reliant on imports, with more than half of the country’s natural gas being imported from countries in the European Economic Area – the vast majority from Norway. The UK can also import supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped on tankers and pipeline flows from Belgium and the Netherlands.

Brexit is not expected to impact on the availability of this gas, even under no deal. However, less efficient trading, the possibility of new regulations, and heightened currency variations would all likely increase costs for consumers.

With the UK unable to meet demand with its own indigenous supply, the country is expected to become increasingly reliant on energy imports from foreign sellers, making these issues more prevalent in the day-to-day trading of energy.

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LONG-TERM FORECAST REPORT

Our team of specialists work hard identifying trends, examining historical figures and forecasting for the future. Their expertise has enabled us to produce the Long-Term Forecast Report. A valuable tool which illustrates the annual projected increases to your energy bills and calculates your energy spend  allowing you to confidently forward budget and avoid any nasty surprises.

Weekly Energy Market Update for 29 July 2019

Gas

Balance of Summer gas prices continue to move lower. The September gas contract has moved to new lows in anticipation of low demand for the remainder of the summer. August gas prices fell 3% across the week but are finding support from expectations of heavy maintenance, which will reduce North Sea production next month. Weakness at the front of the curve reflected healthy supplies and low energy demand levels.

The UK experienced its hottest ever July day, but the extreme heat made little extra impact on gas demand. Overall gas consumption remained at its summer lows with weak domestic consumption and excess gas being injected into already very healthy gas storage sites.

UK gas storage stocks rose 15% last week, while total European gas reserves are fuller than ever before. This will reduce injection demand for the rest of the summer and limit the ability of storage to absorb excess production. This would risk further oversupply, pushing prices to lows that will encourage producers to reduce output, as the demand will not be there. Winter 19 prices followed the summer market lower but the rest of the curve saw little change.

Contracts from Summer 20 onwards spent the last week stabilising in the middle of their July range. The strong gains seen in the first half of July have been partly reversed after costs fell heavily early last week. Prices retreated after reaching levels that would have attracted spot LNG cargoes to Europe, an additional supply source that is not required. Any further losses on the curve are being capped by the continued strength in the carbon market. Carbon costs are holding around €29/tCO2e, close to all-time highs.

Gas Graph

Power

Power prices moved lower last week, in line with the weaker gas contracts. However, price movement was more gradual. Seasonal contracts remain above their early July lows, following the strong rally seen in the first half of the month. While prices have dropped back from their mid-month highs, the market remains elevated, supported by the continued strength in the carbon market and higher coal prices. The cost of carbon allowances remains close to record highs at €30/tCO2e, having risen nearly €25 over the last two years.

Peak electricity demand rose marginally last week, supported by low wind and demand for cooling as the UK experienced its hottest ever July day. However, demand levels only peaked around 34GW, within the summer range, heavily limited by the UK’s lack of air-conditioning infrastructure. Peak consumption is forecast to drop to new lows of 32GW this week. Gas dominates the fuel mix but the impact is muted by the low summer demand levels.

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Future Energy Scenarios

Future Energy Scenarios

The National Grid ESO (Electricity System Operator) has published its yearly Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report detailing four separate pathways that cover the future of energy to 2050 and beyond.

The ESO has taken onboard changes in policy, combined with technological progress and market forces, to create a range of credible scenarios. The scenarios have been modelled to reflect varying levels of decentralisation and the speed of decarbonisation.

The Pathways

Community Renewables (CE) – In this scenario there is a large focus on local energy schemes, boosting individual consumer engagement. Improved energy efficiency is a priority. Strong policy support promotes innovation and the transition towards renewables.

Consumer Evolution (CR) – This scenario sees a shift towards local generation and increased consumer engagement, like Community Renewables. However, a lack of strong policy direction means that progress is slow.

Two Degrees (TD) – Large-scale solutions are developed and consumers are provided with alternative heat and transport options. Priorities include increasing renewable capacity, improving energy efficiency and accelerating new technologies.

Steady Progression (SP) – This scenario evaluates the pace of the low-carbon transition at a rate comparable to today, slowing towards 2050.

Work on the FES 2019 document predates the UK government’s target for Net Zero emissions by 2050. Therefore, the scenarios follow the original Climate Change Act 2008 target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.

Of the scenarios, Community Renewables and Two Degrees meet the 80% target with common themes of strong policy support and high consumer engagement. One of the main drivers in reducing the UK’s carbon emissions to date has been environmental legislation.

Is Net Zero likely?

The ESO included a Net Zero spotlight in the FES 2019 publication to reflect the recent Net Zero publication by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).

Analysis in the FES 2019 report aligns with the Net Zero publication by the CCC. This states that reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable, but only through immediate action across all key technology and policy areas.

In this scenario, the ESO highlight that electrification of the industrial and commercial sectors is vital in reducing emissions. Carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) technologies also have an essential role to play.

At the 2019 Future Energy Scenarios Conference the new target was acknowledged and will likely be taken into account for the pathways modelling in FES 2020.

Stay informed with EIC Insights

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Long-Term Forecast Report

Our team of specialists work hard identifying trends, examining historical figures and forecasting for the future. Their expertise has enabled us to produce the Long-Term Forecast Report. A valuable tool which illustrates the annual projected increases to your energy bills and calculates your energy spend  allowing you to confidently forward budget and avoid any nasty surprises.

Cabinet Reshuffle sees new Business & Environment appointments

Business Secretary

Andrea Leadsom has been given the role of Business Secretary, replacing Greg Clark and will now be responsible for the UK’s decarbonisation strategy. Leadsom has previously had the roles of both the Energy Minister and Environment Secretary.

In the early stages of the leadership election for the Conservative Party she said that if she became Prime Minister she would declare a “climate emergency”. She also pledged to set up a Cabinet sub-committee tasked with overseeing net zero plans for 2050.

Environment Secretary

Theresa Villiers will be filling the role of Environment Secretary and has shown support to climate action, endorsing certain environmental policies and low-carbon initiatives.

Villiers is replacing Michael Gove who was responsible for leading the delivery of Defra’s (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) 25-Year Environment Plan. Gove has also been a key figure in the Government’s plan to eliminate avoidable plastic waste.

COP26 President

Another move saw Claire Perry give up her role as Energy and Clean Growth Minister at BEIS (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) in order to serve as the COP26 President.

The 26th Conference of Parties (COP) will be an important event for climate action. The consensus reached at the Paris Agreement in 2015 is expected to come into full effect at the event, adding pressure to countries to improve their national climate action plans ahead of the event.

COP26 will be co-hosted by the UK, with Italy organising the pre-COP event. The event itself is expected to take place from 9-19 November 2020.

Celebrating TELCA success

We’re delighted to announce that EIC’s Flexible Account Manager, Becky Knowles, scooped the award for Secret Star at The Energy Live Consultancy Awards (TELCAs) 2019 last night.

The ceremony held at the Institute of Engineering and Technology followed by an after party aboard the Silver Sturgeon, is an annual event celebrating the premier consultants and experts in the Energy Industry.

Secret Star nomination

Becky was nominated due to her exceptional customer service and excellent industry knowledge. As an integral part of the Flexible Account Team, Becky regularly goes above and beyond expectations for clients and colleagues. Her meticulous nature and proactivity has secured £000s of savings for customers which includes identifying savings of over £90,000 for one customer due to a billing error.

Well-deserved win

We’re all really proud of Becky’s achievement. John Palmer, Flexible Procurement Team Manager, commented, “this award is so well deserved. Becky is incredibly conscientious, with a strong focus on doing the best that she can for her customers. She provides training and support for her colleagues both within the team and in the wider business, making time to help colleagues despite her own heavy workload. I’m thrilled for Becky, she deserves this success.”

Incredible night

We spoke with Becky after her success who said, “Thanks to Energy Live News for hosting an incredible night! I still can’t believe I won the Secret Star award. It was amazing to be nominated, let alone win so I am overjoyed to have been picked by the judges! A special thanks to all my amazing clients, supply contacts and colleagues.”

Smart Procurement

EIC supports major energy users with Fixed, Flexible and Group procurement solutions. Working with EIC you will receive a dedicated support team to fully manage your utility supplier relationships and queries, change of tenancies and timely consumption data. Read more about our service here.

Celebrating a double nomination at the TELCAs

Tonight is the annual Energy Live Consultancy Awards (TELCAs), held at the Institute of Engineering and Technology. EIC are thrilled to be nominated for Consultancy of the Year and Secret Star award.

Consultancy of the Year

Being shortlisted for Consultancy of the Year is a real achievement and testament to the hard work of the EIC team. We continue to deliver market-leading Strategic Energy Solutions to our client base focusing on Intelligent Buildings, Smart Procurement and Trusted Compliance.

Our flexible procurement traders locked in savings for our clients of £1.6m in the first quarter of 2019 alone and we’re supporting our clients with delivery of ESOS phase 2 and the new Streamline Energy and Carbon Reporting SECR scheme. We’re also innovating and refining our IoT-enabled controls solution working with leading partners such as Intel. The day after the TELCAs we’re holding an Intelligent Buildings event with our partners Intel at their offices in Canary Wharf. If you would like more information on our Intelligent Buildings solution you can download our brochure here

Secret Star

Flexible Account Manager, Becky Knowles, is shortlisted for Secret Star due to her exceptional customer service and excellent industry knowledge. Becky is an integral part of the Flexible Account Team managing a wide range of larger clients. She regularly goes above and beyond expectations for clients and colleagues, proactively checking information that has secured £000s of savings for customers. This includes identifying savings of over £90,000 for one customer due to a billing error.

The client who supported Becky’s nomination commented, Becky provides key communication between myself, as the customer, and our supplier; who aren’t always the easiest to contact. That communication link has been critical, especially when changing suppliers or having issues, for example with invoices. She has gone above and beyond what I would expect a person in her role would do. She also provides me with a number of bespoke reports that have been very useful for my organisation. Any new reports she has gone through and explained the workings around them and is able to make any bespoke adjustments if needed.

We’re keeping our fingers crossed!

Our teams work really hard every day to ensure our clients get the right solutions for their businesses so it’s great to have been recognized for our efforts. We’re looking forward to the ceremony tonight, and would be delighted to win!  Follow our LinkedIn and Twitter pages to see the events as they unfold.

Best of luck to all our fellow nominees too!

Capacity Market T-1 auction clears at all-time low

Capacity Market T-1 auction clears at all-time low

The rescheduled 2018 T-1 Capacity Market (CM) auction cleared at an all-time low price of £0.77/kW, falling from the previous low seen at the last CM auction of £6.00/kW. A total of 129 CMUs (Capacity Market Units) were awarded agreements, procuring a total 3.6GW capacity.

Overall, gas-powered and combined heat and power (CHP) units received the majority of agreements, obtaining 45 and 30 respectively.

The low clearing price proved discouraging for demand-side response (DSR) units with a total of 29 DSR agreements awarded to providers, down from 74 DSR agreements in the 2017 T-1 auction. Storage projects were also deterred, with 6 total projects awarded agreements.

A full breakdown of the results and applicants is provided by National Grid ESO here.

Current State of the Capacity Market

The CM scheme is currently under suspension, following a ruling on 15 November 2018 by the European Court of Justice that its design was biased against small-scale, clean energy units and therefore shouldn’t be eligible for State Aid approval. Under EU State Aid rules, it is required that member states need to consider alternative options to meeting power demand, before subsidising fossil fuel generation.

The Court’s decision means that payments made under the CM scheme will be frozen until the UK Government can obtain permission from the European Commission to continue in an official capacity.

The European Commission has to undertake a formal investigation of the CM to clear it. If successful, the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has said that auction results to date will still stand and that payments are legal.

In the meantime, BEIS has asked the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) to keep the Capacity Market scheme running, short of making payments. BEIS has said that if those with contracts deliver their obligations, they may then be eligible for deferred payments if the market is reinstated.

BEIS expects a decision by the Commission to be made by early next year.

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An update on Smart Export Guarantee

The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has published a response to their consultation on the future for small-scale low-carbon generation, which sought views on policy proposals for a Smart Export Guarantee (SEG).

The SEG will require suppliers with at least 150,000 domestic customers to provide a minimum of one tariff offer to small-scale low-carbon generators. Exporters of up to 5MW capacity of anaerobic digestion, hydro, micro-combined heat and power, onshore wind, and solar photovoltaics are eligible for payment.

It is the government’s opinion that small-scale low-carbon electricity generation should be supported by competitive, market-based solutions. To this effect, the government will not specify a minimum tariff rate in order to allow the market to develop. However, a supplier must provide payment greater than zero at all times of export.

The SEG is a replacement for the Feed-in Tariff (FiT), which closed to new generators in March 2019. The Feed-in Tariff scheme was originally introduced in April 2010 in order to incentivise the development of small-scale renewable generation from decentralised energy solutions. Generators were paid a fixed rate determined by the Government, which varied by technology and scale.

How will this impact you?

All suppliers that meet the SEG criteria will be required to offer at least one tariff by an expected date of 31 December 2019, providing small-scale generators with a choice of who they want to export to.

Currently, there are very few suppliers that offer tariffs of this nature. However, as the deadline approaches it can be expected that all larger suppliers will begin to offer their own options, allowing generators to choose the best tariff for themselves.

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An Insight into Gas Storage

Gas storage in the UK and on the Continent are both continuing to fill up fast and are much higher than normal levels for the time of year. With so little of the injection season having passed, for storage to be at these record high levels could pose problems later in the summer, when assets are even fuller and demand even lower.

UK

Medium Range Storage in the UK is 66% full, with considerably more gas in store for this time of year than at any point in the last six years.

The high inventories are partially boosted by Interconnector (IUK) maintenance happening in April as opposed to June. However this schedule change was to coincide with a time when the conduit was typically less active. With just 5TWh of working gas capacity left to fill, IUK exports will be key in using up any excess supply.

In September 2016, storage was at almost full capacity and the IUK was flowing at its maximum level. This pushed prompt prices as low as 20.6p/th. However, this situation is less likely now as the BBL pipeline, which currently only flows from the Netherlands, is undergoing maintenance to enable reverse flows (UK to the Continent). This will open up a route for a further 40 MCM/d of gas to flow away from the UK.

Europe

European storage reserves are 100 times bigger than the UK with a working gas capacity of 1087 TWh. This is currently 62% full. Having entered the injection season at the highest levels on record due to the additional LNG coming to Europe, injections have actually begun the season fairly strongly. Additions to gas storage are only marginally below last year’s levels when the injection season began with inventories at record low levels.

Injections across Europe through summer 2018 run at, on average, 3.3 TWh/d. However in June, July and August this moved to 4.0 TWh/d. If we run at that rate of injections this summer, then storage will be full by the middle of September.

However, as assets fill, due to increased pressure within the facility the rate of injection slows. At this rate, European assets will be 90% full by late August. Assuming the injection rate then halves, Europe will have to accommodate, or see a supply reduction, of 1TWh of gas per day throughout September, that would typically go into storage. This is over half of the UK’s total demand on a summer day.

This scenario is likely to tip the supply demand balance and could put very strong pressure on gas and power prices later this summer.

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Government to make further adjustments to Capacity Market

Following a consultation in March on additional measures to keep the Capacity Market (CM) running smoothly during the current standstill period, the government has published a decision detailing planned legislative changes.

The government maintains that the CM scheme is still the right mechanism to provide security to electricity supplies at the least cost. In order to continue this, the government intends to:

  • Replace the planned T-4 auction with a T-3 auction for delivery in 2022/23.
  • Allow certain renewable technologies to participate.
  • Remove the historical floor from the interconnector de-rating methodology.
  • Make minor corrections and additions to the CM Rules to ensure they are clear and operate as intended.

When implemented, these rules will see renewable technologies allowed to bid for contracts for the first time under the Capacity Market, having previously failed to qualify due to funding through subsidies. Renewable generators that do not receive support via the Contract for Difference, Renewables Obligation or Feed-in Tariff schemes will be allowed to participate.

The rearranged date for the delayed 2018 T-1 Capacity Market Auction is scheduled to go ahead on 11-12 June 2019 for delivery in the 2019/20 year.

The current state of the Capacity Market

The CM scheme is currently under suspension, following a ruling on 15 November 2018 by the European Court of Justice that its design was biased against small, clean energy and therefore shouldn’t be eligible for State Aid approval. Under EU State Aid rules, it is required that member states need to consider alternative options to meeting power demand, before subsidising fossil fuel generation.

The Court’s decision means that payments made under the CM scheme will be frozen until the UK Government can obtain permission from the European Commission to continue in an official capacity.

The European Commission has to undertake a formal investigation of the CM to clear it. If successful, the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) have said that auction results to date will still stand and that payments are legal.

In the meantime, BEIS has asked the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) to keep the Capacity Market scheme running, short of making payments. BEIS has said that if those with contracts deliver their obligations, they may then be eligible for deferred payments if the market is reinstated.

BEIS expects a decision by the Commission to be made by early next year.

How the closure may affect you

In the short-term the Capacity Market charge will still be levied on customer’s bills, currently accounting for 0.3p/kWh, approximately 2.5% of a bill. This means that consumers will likely see little immediate change.

However, the ongoing suspension could mean a halt to the charge. An unsuccessful investigation by the European Commission could potentially see UK consumers receive a refund for previous CM charges paid through their electricity bills. This could be partially offset by a resultant hike in wholesale energy prices as guarantees of supply from larger operators are no longer certain.

Smaller operators in the scheme may be faced with a dilemma as missed capacity payments could result in cash flow issues. However, a closure to the Capacity Market could see the early shutdown of some coal plants, raising market power prices, and providing opportunity to these smaller operators.

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