The Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) explained

The Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) came into effect on 1st January 2020, replacing the Feed-in Tariff (FiT). These schemes offered payments to businesses with installed onsite generation, a vital part of the UK’s journey to net zero.

Onsite generation can offer businesses various benefits, including self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability – and as the technology becomes less expensive and more efficient, the advantages will only increase. While these green solutions are not suitable for every business, they are becoming more prevalent in this time of economic recovery.

Here are some FAQs regarding the new scheme and how it works:

What is the Smart Export Guarantee (SEG)?

The SEG offers payment to small-scale renewable energy generators for excess electricity that is exported to the National Grid. To do this, suppliers with at least 150,000 domestic customers will be required to provide a minimum of one tariff offer to small-scale low-carbon generators.

Do I need to apply for the Smart Export Guarantee?

If you are a small-scale energy generator with either solar PV, wind, CHP, Hydro, or Anaerobic digestion, installed in England, Scotland or Wales with a capacity up to 5MW (or up to 50kW for micro-CHP), you may fit the criteria for the SEG.

For next steps and more info download our SEG Guide

What if I already get the Feed-in Tariff (FiT)?

If you signed up for FiT before the 31 March 2019 deadline, your payments will continue until your contract runs out. The SEG is mostly for companies or households with new renewable energy installations, or for those who missed the FiT deadline.

There is no FiT subsidy for newly installed renewable energy technologies after this date. Backdated applications will also not be accepted.

What is the difference between SEG and FiT?

Whilst the SEG is replacing the Feed-in Tariff, there are differences between the two schemes. The Feed-in Tariff included both export and generation tariffs, but the SEG only provides the former. In other words, with the SEG you will only receive tariffs for the renewable energy you don’t use. This means that customers may not see the same financial benefit for the renewable energy they are generating as solar panel owners initially did with FiT. (Tariffs will vary across regions depending on network requirements.)

There is also a scheme for renewable heat technologies for both domestic and non-domestic purposes, known as the RHI and non-domestic RHI. This government scheme provides financial incentives for the installation of renewable heat technologies. Eligible technologies include biomass heat, solar thermal and heat pumps.

How do I know if on-site generation is right for my business?

On-site generation can often provide energy security: a worthwhile commodity in a volatile market. It can also help businesses avoid non-commodity costs, which can make up almost 60% of your energy bills.

At EIC, we already support our clients with initiatives that incentivise clean energy use, assisting clients with navigating the transition to a net zero landscape. We can help guide you towards the most efficient and cost-effective energy management plan. This can mean exploring on-site generation options, as well as other sustainable solutions that can reduce your carbon emissions and energy costs.

For businesses that have set or plan on committing to a net zero target, EIC would be happy to engage with you. Our carbon team works with businesses to put together an adaptable and bespoke roadmap, outlining the sustainable steps required to reduce your carbon footprint. Along the way, we will ensure you stay compliant with changing legislation, allowing you to make the most of schemes such as the SEG.

To understand more about our energy and carbon services contact us at EIC.

REGO prices rise amidst post-Brexit uncertainty

The Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) scheme was designed to provide consumers with transparency about the portion of electricity their suppliers source from renewable generation.

How do REGOs work?

Renewable energy generators are issued with one REGO certificate for every megawatt hour (MWh) of renewable output. This certificate is then sold with an energy contract to prove to the final customer that a share of their energy was produced from renewable sources.

Why are REGO prices rising?

In recent weeks the cost of REGO certificates has increased dramatically, leading to rising renewable electricity contract renewal prices. There are a number of factors driving the increases, including:

  • Lower levels of renewable generation than expected in the UK in the 2020–21 period, reducing the number of REGOs available on the market
  • Higher levels of demand for renewable electricity
  • End-of-year purchasing by suppliers to meet their obligations
  • Uncertainty surrounding the acceptance of European Guarantees of Origin certificates (GoOs) in future
  • Increase in wholesale electricity prices that continue to recover to pre-pandemic levels

These factors mean that customers securing renewable electricity contract renewals are likely to see their prices increase.

Are REGOs used for greenwashing?

REGOs have faced criticism for allowing greenwashing. This is because some suppliers buy power on the wholesale market, which is a mix of all sources including fossil fuels and nuclear. They then separately acquire REGOs to label this power ‘green’. Scottish Power and Good Energy have recently called for regulatory reforms to close these “loopholes” in the market.

Despite these calls for reform, a recent Cornwall Insight’s survey found that 74% of participants felt there had been no improvement in REGOs regulations.

How can EIC help?

The sharpest insights are crucial in today’s volatile markets. We work to ensure that our clients are aware of key market movements and are ready to capitalise on every opportunity.

The EIC Market Intelligence team has extensive knowledge of the electricity and carbon markets and the fundamentals driving them. Interpreting this information is a key component of a successful energy management strategy.

EIC can help your business stay ahead of the curve with market insights and smart procurement so you can make energy management decisions with confidence. To learn more, contact us at EIC today.

Battery Storage: how can it benefit your business?

Renewable energy is key to building our sustainable future. The issue is that although solar and wind provide clean, inexpensive power, they only do so in the right conditions. A cloudy, windless day can lead to a significant drop in supply. This sort of intermittent power cannot provide the consistent energy we require, especially as our demand increases. This is why battery storage is becoming essential as we move away from fossil fuels.

Installing onsite power storage can be a simple process and technology breakthroughs have made it a viable and cost-effective option for many businesses. However, the benefits of battery storage go far beyond convenience. Developing an integrated battery solution is an effective way to fully optimise your energy capacity. It can enable businesses to become less reliant on the national grid, reduce CO2 emissions, and generate additional revenue for your business.

Reduce your electricity costs

Energy use at peak times can be expensive. Especially as it can have a huge effect on the non-commodity costs that you pay each year. Being able to purchase energy when it is at its cheapest and use it when you need it can make a huge difference to your utility bills.

Until battery technology came along, lowering your energy costs involved turning off devices or lowering usage. Battery storage is a far more flexible solution that offers opportunities outside of small-scale savings. When paired with renewable generation technology it can help you avoid non-commodity costs altogether. Or at the very least, help you avoid higher costs in times of peak demand.

Stabilise your energy supply

Having your own storage batteries guarantees a continuous source of power regardless of what is happening to the network. This reduces your reliance on the grid, protecting you from blackouts and local technical faults as well as securing a reliable energy supply.

Get paid to help balance the grid

With battery technology, energy can be stored for later use or sold back to the grid for additional revenue via potentially lucrative demand-side response (DSR) schemes. By becoming a demand-side supplier you are helping to balance the system and smooth out peaks in demand. This sort of initiative is a fundamental part of the government’s ongoing energy strategy. And further similar opportunities are likely to follow as we move towards 2050.

How EIC can help you store power

If your business could benefit from lower energy bills and a more stable supply, a battery setup could be the ideal solution. At EIC, we provide guidance on the installation of onsite generation and power storage.

While these systems can have great benefits on their own, the returns are even greater when working in tandem with other technology. We can offer energy management services that help improve your efficiency and further lower your expenses. If you would like more information on battery technology and want to explore your options, get in touch today.

Triad demand rises despite winter lockdown

National Grid have published the three Triad dates for the 2020/21 season, which are listed in the table below. For a ninth consecutive year EIC has successfully called an alert on each of these days.

EIC hit all three Triads with only 14 Red alerts issued.

There was an increase in the number of Triad calls this year with 24 alerts issued in total. This compares favourably with other suppliers who called an average of 30 alerts across the Triad period.

triad dates

Triads are three half-hour periods with the highest electricity demand between the start of November and the end of February. Each Triad must be separated by at least 10 clear days. This means consecutive days of high demand won’t result in multiple Triads. If consumers are able to respond to Triad alerts by reducing demand then they will be able to lower their final transmission costs.

First increase in peak demand for 6 years

This winter saw the first increase in peak demand since 2014/15 and the largest year-on-year increase since 2007/08. There are a number of factors which contributed to this including lower temperatures, a reduction in demand-side response and an increase in domestic consumption. While peak demand increased from last winter, average demand decreased by around 2%.

The rise in coronavirus cases at the start of the winter led to the Government imposing further lockdown measures. This led to a reduction in the number of businesses reacting to Triad calls and reducing demand at peak times. Our analysis has suggested there was up to 1GW less demand-side response than the previous winter. The lockdown also signalled a return to home schooling and working from home which subsequently increased domestic consumption. This increase was mainly driven by lighting and heating which are typically less efficient in homes than in schools and businesses.

The trendline below shows that weekday peak demand over the Triad period increased by an average of 0.5GW for every 1°C decrease in average temperature. Some of the variation in the graph can be explained by the two national lockdowns that were in place over most of the Triad period. Our analysis of the temperature-corrected data has shown that peak demand increased by around 4-5% once lockdown conditions were lifted in December. This coincided with a drop in temperatures leading to the first Triad on 7th December.

temperature vs demand graph

Cold January leads to increase in demand

The Triad season started with long periods of mild weather during November and most of December. Temperatures fell after Christmas which led to the coldest January since 2010 and the second coldest in the past 24 years. This is in stark contrast to January 2020 which was the second mildest in the past 30 years. Across the Triad season eight weekdays had an average temperature below zero, all of these occurring after Christmas. This compares to none the previous winter and only two for the 2018/19 winter.

The graph below shows that the first Triad fell on the only day before Christmas with an average temperature below 2°C, while the second and third Triads occurred during longer cold spells during the start of January and February. Wind generation continued to have an impact on peak demand as embedded generation is not connected to the grid and is instead seen as a drop in demand. All three Triads occurred on days when wind generation was less than 5GW as the drop in demand from embedded wind generation was reduced.

temperature energy price graph

TCR Final Decision

In December 2019 Ofgem published their final decision on the Targeted Charging Review (TCR), although the implementation date has since been delayed by a year due to the coronavirus pandemic. The main outcome of this decision is that from April 2022 the residual part of transmission and distribution charges will be levied in the form of fixed charges for all households and businesses. This means that there is one final chance for consumers to benefit from Triad avoidance over the 2021/22 winter period.

The TCR aims to introduce a charge that Ofgem considers is fair to all consumers and not just those able to reduce consumption during peak periods. For the majority of consumers these changes will lead to a reduction in transmission costs. However, for those who are currently taking Triad avoidance action it is likely that their future costs will rise.

Impact on Consumers

The graph below shows the average % change in DUoS and TNUoS costs across each region and meter type as a result of the TCR. Our analysis has found that most half-hourly (HH) sites will benefit from a fall in costs, however most domestic and non-half hourly (NHH) sites will see a small rise in costs. Southern areas will typically benefit from a larger decrease in costs than northern areas.

Consumers currently taking Triad avoidance action are likely to face an increase in TNUoS costs from Apr-22 as the effect of Triad avoidance is removed. Likewise, sites that have a capacity level set too high will also not benefit from the same level of cost reductions shown below as they are potentially placed in a higher charging band.

TCR graph

How EIC can help

With the confirmation that from April 2022 residual charges will be calculated using a capacity based methodology, now is the perfect time to undertake a capacity review on all of your HH sites. EIC’s Capacity Review service is a fully managed end to end offering. We undertake detailed analysis for each of your sites, outline potential savings and offer clear advice on what action you should take. If we find that your capacity can be reduced by more than 50% it may also be possible to apply for a charging band reallocation which could significantly cut your future DUoS and TNUoS charges.

EIC can also help you accurately budget and forecast your energy prices with confidence with our Long-Term Forecast Report. Our team of specialists work hard identifying trends, examining historical figures and forecasting for the future. The Long-Term Forecast Report is a valuable tool which illustrates the annual projected increases to your energy bills and calculates your energy spend over the next 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. This allows you to confidently forward budget and avoid any nasty surprises. Whilst we can’t prevent the rise of non-commodity charges, we can ensure you are fully prepared for the increases.

A step-by-step guide to setting up new connections

Refurbishing your premises or expanding to new sites can add complex and time-consuming energy admin to your workload. EIC takes the stress out of this process, coordinating your organisation’s new utility connections in a seamless and hassle-free way. Here is a step-by-step guide of what to expect and prepare for on your new connections journey.

Step 1: Register

The first step is to register your requirements with the relevant parties. This is a good time to reach out to an energy specialist at EIC. We will guide you through the process, answer your questions and translate the technical jargon.

Step 2: Gather information

Moving forward, we will need some details including an idea of your estimated energy usage and your Meter point numbers. For electricity, you will need the Meter Point Administration Number (MPAN) which you can get from your local electricity distributor. For gas, you will need the Meter Point Reference Number (MPRN). For this, simply call the MPRN enquiry line. Alternatively, you can get this information from any bills you have received if it’s an existing supply.

If this is a completely new supply, you may not have received these yet, so don’t worry if you don’t have them.

At this point in the process, EIC will send a quote for the new connections service needed. If you are happy with it, we will follow up with a contract and dive in. Our goal is to power up your site or business as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Step 3: Infrastructure plans

Next, infrastructure plans will need drafting. This will mean applications, potential site work considerations, supply contracts and arranging for meter installation.

EIC provides peace of mind throughout this process by liaising with all respective parties and gathering all the necessary technical information. This includes location maps, building layouts, meter positions, and utility loading needs. If there are site works to consider, EIC can help provide temporary builder’s supply. We can also coordinate alteration or rerouting of supply with minimal disruption, and meter removals and disconnections.

setting up new connections

Step 4: Gas and power supply contracts

If you haven’t already, it is time to secure gas and electricity supply contracts. Having established relationships with a range of reputable suppliers, EIC can shop around for options that best fit your organisation’s needs. Whether you need a single connection or multi-site rollout, we can manage and deliver your power and gas requirements with ease. All the while, providing necessary updates and ensuring open communication and transparency.

Step 5: Meter Installation

After contacting the meter operator (MOP) to arrange the appropriate contracts, it is time to install meters and power up your business. EIC can simplify every aspect of this process and coordinate the design, planning and installation, upgrade or removal of your meters.

Your metering solutions will help decide the efficiency of your space and requires a thoughtful and comprehensive approach. EIC’s services extend beyond meter installations for new connections. We also provide everything from smart submetering to next-generation energy management systems. These solutions can help reduce energy costs and cut carbon emissions. Helping to build a sustainable foundation for your business from day one.

Once the meters are installed, we will make sure that they are registered and live on the national database.

Step 6: Bill validation

Once everything is up and running, it is time to run final checks and make sure you are not being overcharged. EIC helps to ensure the billing is accurate by confirming the first invoice received from the supplier reflects the agreed contract rates.

If we removed, upgraded or altered meters, we ensure the final invoice received from the supplier reflects the closing or opening meter readings respectively.

Step 7: Rest easy

By entrusting this process to EIC, project managers can now rest easy knowing that they have been provided with the most reliable, efficient and cost effective energy solutions.

Moving forward, a sustainable energy infrastructure will be essential for any growing business, especially as the UK transitions to a net zero economy. EIC can help you implement and use intelligent building strategies to cut your carbon footprint and boost your savings. This includes IoT building management systems, green lighting solutions, and carbon compliance services.

To begin, or boost, your sustainable energy journey with EIC, contact us today.

Should SMEs conduct an energy audit?

EIC explores the benefits that firms can reap from conducting an energy audit and how to maximise the value of its findings.

Information is power

Energy audits provide firms with a clearer picture of their energy consumption patterns. Also, they can highlight existing points of weakness where wastage may be occurring as well as provide a foundation of knowledge for negotiating new energy procurement contracts.

As we approach the 2050 net-zero deadline, clarity surrounding energy usage – the major driver behind office-based carbon emissions – will become increasingly valuable.

Small to medium enterprises in particular stand to benefit greatly from the help audits can provide. Especially in navigating information barriers that conceal opportunities to improve their energy efficiency.

While a review of an organisations energy portfolio can seem daunting, technology can help lighten the load. Smart meters can keep an ongoing, up-to-date record of energy usage across an entire site.

Employing one of these devices essentially automates the local data-finding necessary to perform an effective audit. Given how vulnerable long-term metering is to human error, this makes their installation a wise first step in the process.

Metering alone can provide average energy savings of 10% and comprehensive sub-metering can raise these savings by a further 30% according to the Carbon Trust.

An on-site walk around compliments the auditing process since it can identify sources of inefficiency missed by meter readings. Old equipment in need of replacement is one common example. Another being wholesale temperature regulation of buildings since this often does not reflect actual occupancy levels in individual rooms.

The fruits of an energy audit

mixed fruitWith the audit complete, realistic energy efficiency targets become foreseeable and have a baseline for comparison of progress. Such a foundation is crucial for effective engagement with carbon compliance schemes like SECR and CCA.

Firms might follow up by installing site-wide building management systems that can provide further clarity on utility consumption.

Such a system can remotely govern space occupancy, dynamic temperature regulation and air quality from a single platform. The latter of these also affects the health and productivity of those within. Thus, intelligent air quality management can represent a twofold investment.

EIC understands the potential of informed utility management, hence why it provides all these services under a single banner.

Whether it be by supporting data collation with expert metering guidance or exploiting the discoveries that an audit yields with a single-platform building management system, EIC can provide the technical expertise needed for enterprises to maximise the benefit of an energy audit.

 

The green gold rush: CCA extension proposed

EIC explains the government’s proposed extension to the climate change agreements initiative (CCA), benefits of compliance and how we can ensure you qualify.

CCA: How and why

The climate change agreements initiative was established to incentivise the continued and effective implementation of energy efficiency strategies among the most energy-intensive industrial sectors.

icebergs in the sea

CCA encourages businesses to streamline their energy usage by offering a 93% reduction on electricity, and a 78% reduction on other fuels accrued as a result of the climate change levy (CCL).

Since its inception in 2013, approximately 700,000 tonnes of carbon emissions have been prevented each year, with businesses using up to 2.3 TWh less energy or enough to power 140,000 homes.

The need for such legislation becomes painfully obvious when framed in the context of energy wastage, in the City of London alone businesses are losing £35m each year this way according to a Green Alliance think tank report.

Originally, the initiative was due to conclude in March 2023 however Chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak announced in the spring budget that there would be a consultation on a possible two-year extension to the initiative.

The show goes on

While 9,000 facilities across the UK are already benefiting from the CCA, this extension is estimated to be worth as much as £300m annually in CCL discounts, for the businesses already taking part in the scheme as well as new beneficiaries that would now be able to apply.

It works by encouraging businesses to make improvements to site energy efficiency over an eight-year period. In return, businesses would receive a discount worth as much as £300m annually on CCL bills.

Given the financial uncertainty that COVID-19 continues to inspire, and cooling attitudes towards sustainable development and practices, the news of an extension is welcome on all fronts.

“Extending the Climate Change Agreement scheme will give businesses greater clarity and security at a time when they need it most. This extension will save businesses money while cutting emissions…”

Energy Minister Kwasi Kwarteng

The consultation will cover proposals for the addition of a new Target Period, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2022, an extension of certification for reduced rates of CCL for participants 31 March 2025 and finally, to re-open the scheme, allowing eligible facilities not currently participating to apply to join.

Businesses that had previously missed the opportunity to join the scheme now stand a chance of taking advantage of these savings whilst contributing to a greener economy.

However, it should be noted that the criteria of eligibility for the scheme is not under review, rather the extra time will allow businesses to implement strategies that make them eligible in time for the levy discount to bear fruit.

lightbulbs hanging from the ceiling

The new gold rush

The extension proposed, if approved, presents a significant opportunity to both current beneficiaries and newcomers to the scheme, provided they have the reporting mechanisms in place, to adhere to the scheme.

Businesses that wish to take advantage of this opportunity in future will need to ensure that they are fully compliant with the scheme as soon as possible, in order to reap the most benefit.

EIC’s expert team of carbon consultants and data analysts are dedicated to offering your business a comprehensive CCA service from initial assessments through data analysis to actionable strategy.

Weekly Energy Market Update – 10 February

Gas

Short-term gas contracts, notably the Day-ahead and front-month markets, fell heavily again last week, with losses of around 9%. The driving force in the gas market remains the very healthy fundamentals, lower than expected demand and risk of oversupply. A brief spell of below average temperatures and low winds had no price impact, while declines accelerated again when temperatures climbed at the end of the week and wind output surged to more than 13GW as Storm Ciara arrived in the UK.

Flexibility within the gas supply network is minimising the impact of higher demand across the winter, particularly from LNG sendout, which rose above 100mcm again last week. Nineteen tankers are now booked for February arrival. Record low LNG prices across the global market are contributing to a substantial oversupply. Asian LNG prices have more than halved year-on-year as Chinese demand tumbles amid fears over the spread of the Coronavirus.

Higher heating demand this week is likely to be offset by continued high winds, reducing the use of gas for power generation. March and April gas prices are down to 22p/th while the Summer 20 contract has halved in value since the start of winter, falling from 46p/th to 23p/th. Longer-dated gas contracts moved higher, with gains of 3-4% across the week. This was in line with a rebound in the crude oil market, which bounced off one-year lows amid ongoing speculation over the spread of the Coronavirus. Fears over lower demand from the virus has weighed on commodity prices for the last few weeks.

Power

Day-ahead power prices ended the week below £30/MWh for only the third time in ten years as the UK experienced very high wind levels at times last week. Day-ahead prices started the week higher, rising to £37/MWh as weather conditions were cooler with wind output dropping below 2GW. However, as Storm Ciara reached the UK at the end of the week, wind generation jumped to peaks of more than 13GW. On Saturday wind generation averaged 12GW across the day. The strong renewable availability reduced the share of gas in the fuel mix, with CCGT burn halving from 16GW to 8GW in one day.

Higher levels of embedded generation from the strong winds also affected electricity demand. After peaking at 45GW early in the week, peak demand fell to 42GW by Friday. Wind output is forecast to remain consistent around 12-13GW for the first few days of this week. Power prices for Tuesday have dropped to £28/MWh, testing 13-year lows for the prompt market. The
continued declines in the gas market is reducing the cost of gas-fired generation, and driving the front of the power curve to new lows. March 20 prices fell 5% week-on-week with the Summer 20 market hitting new lows at £33/MWh. The rest of the electricity curve saw little change, drawing some support from gains in longer-dated gas contracts and the oil market.

T-3 Capacity Market auction clears at new lows

The T-3 Capacity Market (CM) auction has cleared at £6.44 per kilowatt per year, marking the lowest outturn for a T-3 auction to date. The result will guarantee capacity for delivery over winter 2022/23.

A required capacity of 44.2GW was made available to bidders representing a total 59GW of derated capacity. The final result saw National Grid ESO procure 45.1GW of capacity.

The T-3 auction is the first since the reinstatement of the CM in October 2019. Two further auctions are scheduled for this year; a T-1 auction commencing 6 February and a T-4 auction to start 5 March.

The Market was originally suspended in November 2018, following a ruling from the European Court of Justice that the design of the scheme was biased against small-scale, clean energy units and therefore should not be eligible for State Aid approval. However, the ensuing investigation carried out by the European Commission reconfirmed its eligibility, enabling the Market to be restored.

Capacity Market consultation launched

Following the recent reinstatement of the Capacity Market the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) has launched a consultation on proposed changes to the scheme. The government hope to implement improvements to the CM’s design to reflect recent market and regulatory developments.

In summary, the government proposes to:

  • Allow all types of capacities to apply to prequalify to bid for all the agreement lengths available in the Market, provided they can demonstrate they meet relevant capital expenditure thresholds.
  • Reduce the minimum capacity to participate from 2MW to 1MW.
  • Legislate the government’s commitment to procuring at least 50% of the capacity set-aside for the T-1 auction.
  • Incorporate any new capacity type into the CM that can demonstrably contribute to the generation adequacy problem.
  • Establish a reporting and verification mechanism for the carbon emission limits to be applied to the Market.
  • Remove the exclusion of plants with Long-term STOR (Short-term operating reserve) contracts from the CM.

The consultation will conclude on 2 March 2020.

STAY INFORMED WITH EIC INSIGHTS

Our Market Intelligence team keep a close eye on the energy markets and industry updates. For the timeliest updates you can find us on Twitter and LinkedIn

Weekly Energy Market Update – 20 January

Gas

Gas prices fell heavily again last week with contracts across the curve falling to new lows. Price drivers for the market are unchanged with the extent of oversupply and strength of fundamentals continuing to weaken prices. Balance of Winter and Summer 20 prices fell 7% across the week, with losses continuing today. The Summer 20 contract has dropped nearly 40% in the last three months. The oversupply is being driven by record storage stocks in the UK and Europe. Unseasonably mild temperatures so far this month, coupled with very high wind levels have depressed demand.

Meanwhile record LNG imports have balanced the gas system with minimal use of storage withdrawals or Interconnector imports from Europe. Price falls this winter have been strongest for the Summer 20 contract, which anticipates very limited injection demand and an inability to absorb excess supply during the milder months. The strength of losses in short-term contracts have now brought down the rest of the curve with seasonal 2021 contracts down 5% across the week, breaking below their previous December lows.

Gas demand has risen sharply today with consumption rising around 80mcm from last week, as temperatures briefly drop to below seasonal-normal levels. Lower wind output of under 5GW this week is also increasing gas for power generation. However, the demand is being comfortably met by supply, notably from LNG, which has risen to more than 130mcm to match the higher demand. This underlines the strength of flexibility within the gas supply system. Milder, windier conditions are returning at the end of the week.

Power

In the power market, contracts on the curve are following the gas market lower, reflecting the declining costs of gas for generation. Very high winds pushed Day-ahead power prices to new lows of £32/MWh but the prompt has risen across the week in anticipation of higher demand from lower winds and colder temperatures this week.

Wind generation across the week was consistent at over 8GW, reaching highs of 14GW as Storm Brendan swept across the UK. Power demand is expected to rise this week as temperatures have dropped to below seasonal-normal levels with wind output as low as 2GW. However, the extensive gas supply flexibility offered by record storage stocks, LNG and Interconnector imports is weighing heavily on prices.

Prices across the curve are down 3% week-on-week. However, the losses in the power market are more gradual than the corresponding gas contracts. This is the result of price support from rising carbon prices, protecting the power curve from further losses. Carbon costs pushed above €25/tCO2e last week, to new highs for the year.

 

Weekly Energy Market Update – 13 January

Gas

Gas prices on the curve moved lower week-on-week, with the market close to the record contract lows seen at the end of December. However, price movement was more volatile after gains of as much as 10% in the aftermath of the US air strike in Iran. Those gains had been fully reversed by the middle of last week. Concerns over supply disruption in the region, and possible LNG exports from Qatar eased, with the strength of fundamentals within the market returning to focus as the biggest price driver.

Declines across the gas market seen since October have accelerated in recent weeks as the extent of oversupply in the system became more apparent. After reaching eight-year highs in December, LNG imports continued to flood into the UK in the first half of January. Gas demand levels have been unseasonably low amid above average temperatures and very strong wind levels. The record low levels attracted some buying interest, while reduced LNG sendout and Norwegian imports via Langeled left the system undersupplied on some occasions. This provided some price support with the market bouncing off those lows late last week, with a continued modest recovery today. However, prices remain close to historical lows, with the fundamental outlook for the gas market remaining highly bearish. Losses were strongest on the front of the curve with the February market and Summer 20 prices down 7% week-on-week.

Prolonged above average temperatures are forecast in January while the UK and Europe is set to end winter with record levels of gas in storage which will affect injection demand during the milder summer months. Storage withdrawals and Interconnector imports have been largely untouched throughout winter, but can provide substantial supply flexibility and spare capacity as required.

Power

Power prices have mirrored movements in the gas market. A bounce across the energy mix in the aftermath of the US air strike in Iran has been reversed with contracts pushing back towards the lows seen at the end of December. The very low cost of gas-fired generation, particularly this summer, is weakening electricity contracts.

The February power market fell 5% across the week with seasonal power contracts for 2020 down 4%. Elevated carbon prices, which remain above €24/tCO2e are underpinning the power market, slowing the extent of declines relative to gas. However, the downward pressure on electricity prices continues, with very high renewable availability providing further bearish signals.

Day-ahead power prices rose across the week as demand increased from their holiday lows. However, at £36/MWh, the prompt market remains highly depressed, below the trading range seen during most of the summer season. Furthermore, while electricity consumption rebounded to 45GW last week the outlook for consumption remains very weak because of the near-record levels of wind generation.

Forecasts of up to 14GW of wind generation throughout the coming week is driving down demand. The high levels of on-site embedded generation from wind is reducing demand on the transmission network. Peak power demand this week is forecast at just 43.0GW, a drop of 4GW compared to the same week last year. The high winds are expected to continue until Friday as Storm Brendan sweeps across the UK. Weather conditions are set to shift next week as winds drop and temperatures cool from current above average levels.

 

STAY INFORMED WITH EIC INSIGHTS

Our Market Intelligence team keep a close eye on the energy markets and industry updates. For the timeliest updates you can find us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Weekly Energy Market Update – 6 January

Gas

Gas prices on the curve rebounded last week, bouncing off contract lows reached between Christmas and New Year.

Prices across Europe pushed to new lows after a new transit supply agreement between Russia and Ukraine was agreed, avoiding supply disruption.

The Summer 20 market dipped below 30p/th, down 10% since Christmas. However, contracts across the curve have rebounded since Friday, following supply risks linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. A US air strike has killed a top Iranian military general. Tehran has vowed “severe revenge” with the risk of disruption to the region’s vast oil supply providing some price support.

LNG may also be affected by a possible new conflict with the US and Iran previously rowing over access to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial supply route for tankers. Strong gains in the oil market – which is testing highs of $70/bbl – provided support to longer-dated gas prices, delivering in 2021. While there may be further volatility as the situation develops, fundamentals remain bearish, with oversupply capping prices around their pre-Christmas lows.

LNG imports were at their highest since April 2011 in December, while thirteen tankers are already confirmed for January arrival. Interconnector imports remain untouched and a storage overhang is inevitable as lower demand during the holiday period meant 3TWh of gas was injected into storage.

UK gas reserves are over 95% full and at record highs for the time of year. Demand forecasts for January are also price depressive with above average temperatures expected for at least the next two weeks while wind generation dominated the fuel
mix, providing a third of UK power in the last week after averaging over 10GW a day. With energy demand in the short-term expected to be low the risk of oversupply and an inevitable storage overhang is still weighing on gas markets.

Power

Power prices pushed lower during December led by Day-ahead and balance of winter contracts that reflect the oversupply in the gas market and lower cost of gas-fired generation. Electricity demand fell heavily over the Christmas holiday period, driving Day-ahead power prices to lows of £32/MWh, not seen since early October.

While consumption has picked up as schools and businesses return to full operation, power demand maintains a significant reduction to previous years. Very high wind generation over the last week has reduced the use of fossil fuels, while the gas burn being utilised is at a low cost level.

Wind has provided a third of UK electricity so far this month, leading the fuel mix with average output of 10GW a day. The strong renewable availability is forecast to continue this week as the UK benefits from windy, mild weather conditions, which are providing downward pressure to prices. This is the reverse of the cold, low wind scenarios that risk higher prices
during the winter season.

Across the curve, power prices followed the gas market lower over the holiday period, hitting new lows at the end of December. The market has rebound marginally since Friday following the escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the scale of movement in power, both lower and in the rebound have been more gradual than in gas. The continued elevation in carbon prices, which are holding above €24/tCO2e are helping to underpin the power market. Week-on-week electricity contracts remain down with the Summer 20 contract under £40/MWh.

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